This truly is the most unusual Super Bowl -- a West Coast matchup of two teams no one thought would end up here, minimal in-week storylines and the odd setting of Los Angeles, a city largely unaffected by a massive event like what is set to unfold on Sunday.
Where are the storylines? All week long it's been very low-key chatter from these teams. Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford both ooze quiet confidence, and by all accounts through pool reports from practice, there's been no injuries nor distractions for either team.
Let's dissect who we think will win and get to some props as well.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook
Super Bowl Picks
Bengals vs. Rams
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Betting against Burrow feels like a stupid move. The guy just wins and he really just wins when it comes to big moments and big games. But I can't shake the idea of the Rams dominating in this game. No one "wants it more" when it comes to the Super Bowl, but the Rams landing Von Miller didn't just inject life into the pass rush. Les Snead and Sean McVay also got Aaron Donald a "championship mentor" of sorts in the former Broncos pass-rusher -- as Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic wrote, Miller gave Donald some motivation to inspire his teammates.
Donald and Miller and Leonard Floyd are just a flat-out problem for the Bengals offensive line, by far their biggest weakness. As long as the Rams can protect Stafford -- who has for the most part been lights out in the playoffs through three games -- Los Angeles should be able to pick apart the Bengals' secondary with its multitude of weapons.
After being activated on Friday, Darrell Henderson gives Sean McVay three different running backs he can deploy should he get a lead. I expect lots of early runs, maybe a trick play here or there, but a distinct lack of points scored in the first half. Maybe things get cranked up in the third quarter, particularly if the Bengals or Rams are sitting on a double-digit lead and the other team is forced to throw.
Personally I believe that will be the Rams with a lead. McVay has been here before and he only scored three points. I expect him to be aggressive in his pursuit of touchdowns, knowing the pain of being flummoxed by a defense on this huge stage. He won't be overwhelmed the way he was when he squared off against Bill Belichick. Zac Taylor is the guy we should be worried about when it comes to "the moment being too big" -- Burrow won't be overwhelmed but most of his teammates and coaches don't have the same level of experience as the Rams.
With a lead, L.A. will be able to pin its ears and go after Burrow. We saw the Titans get Burrow nine times, the Chiefs pressured him plenty and Maxx Crosby was a problem in the first playoff game. It's simply a bad matchup, and I think the Rams take advantage en route to a fairly easy victory in the Super Bowl.
The pick: Rams 27, Bengals 9
Props:
Ja'Marr Chase over rush yards 4.5 -- The Bengals will want to use some jet-sweep action to disrupt the pass rush and get the ball into their playmaker's hands.
Cam Akers under 63.5 rush yards -- Henderson is back, which means we should see a more sizable distribution of the touches. Akers' two fumbles caused McVay to give Sony Michell more work.
Van Jefferson over 2.5 receptions / Kendall Blanton anytime TD -- Pure "no Tyler Higbee" plays.
Odell Beckham over 5.5 catches -- Cooper Kupp is the focal point of the Rams' offense, obviously, but I think they might target OBJ early knowing the Bengals could be doubling Kupp.
Joe Burrow under 36.5 pass attempts -- A low-scoring game with tons of runs from both teams should lead to fewer Burrow dropbacks, even if the game script is potentially concerning.
Matthew Stafford/Von Miller MVP: I think Stafford takes this down if the Rams win in convincing fashion and score more than 25 points. But Miller is worth a sprinkle as a longer shot. He's won it before, the pass rush is going to be key and he's the most likely guy to cause a game-flipping fumble when he gets i
Super Bowl 2022 odds, pick: Bengals vs. Rams decided by a single point; Jason La Canfora breaks it down
The last couple of rounds of the playoffs have not been so kind to us. Some tough beats and overall we have probably failed to take the Bengals seriously enough. Well, I can tell you that ends now. The final game of the season in what has been an absolutely epic postseason I suspect will live up to the billing.
This is where legacies are made and the outcome of this game will have a significant impact on all of those involved in it. There are no guarantees we see either of these teams back anytime soon, although I could make the case for both. That's just the way it goes. That is the finality of the situation and there are any number of future Hall of Famers who would tell you that once they reach this level they thought they would be back time and time again. The reality for most of them is these opportunities were fleeting. And at this moment in time I find myself leaning to the team that probably doesn't even realize the magnitude of what it has accomplished to this point and that in my estimation is most likely to be the looser and more freewheeling of the two teams.
Give me the points here, especially since it's more than a field goal. I get that this is the home stadium the Rams play in, but I am less than convinced that this will be a true home-field advantage and I also think having to play at home ramps up the expectations for an L.A. team that started to look a little desperate and out of sorts in the NFC Championship Game at home. I'm not sure that this will bring out the best in the Rams and again I think the Bengals are already the team that's playing with house money.
I've been following logic to this point and handicapping these Bengals games and figuring that their protection deficiencies would lead them to lose. However, the officials are letting a lot of things go in this postseason. We're not seeing a ton of holding calls and Joe Burrow has proven to be very adept at getting away from pass-rushers. I actually think the best defensive line he faced was at Tennessee, and I would give them an overall edge over this Rams group -- and even being sacked nine times wasn't enough to put Burrow out in that one. I also expect Bengals coach Zac Taylor to activate his running backs fully and for them to have upwards of 40 touches in this game to mitigate the damage Aaron Donald can do, relying on a screen game and keeping the clock going on the ground.
The Bengals are going to have to be more efficient in the red zone and I think they can be. I also think from their spread formations they will be able to find some success against the Rams group of safeties. Even if Jalen Ramsey does the job on Ja'Marr Chase, options will abound for Burrow. All of these games scripts have basically put this thing down to special teams, and I would not bet against the Bengals rookie kicker Evan McPherson, nor would I continue to bet against Burrow at this point. The Bengals have something special going on here. The win at Arrowhead will only further their belief and determination and I think they have one more upset in them.
Comments
Post a Comment